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قديم 08-12-2014, 08:05 PM   #1
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قديم 10-12-2014, 12:40 PM   #2
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طيب وين احصل اجابة هذا سؤال
a- What is scenario planning (5 mark)? Discusses the scenario thinking and scenario planning (7 mark).
b- Discuss the level of analysis and why scenario techniques are not used ?(13 mark)
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قديم 10-12-2014, 04:48 PM   #3
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A)Known as ‘future-now’ thinking, aiming through the use of detailed analysis plus imagination, to be able to write a report in the present as if it was being written at some date in the future. Two styles are available:

Intuitive style:
scenarios were not forecasts or predictions about the future, The idea was to construct credible pictures of a point in the future that could be used to test the robustness of longer-term strategies

‘The end result is not an accurate picture of tomorrow, but better decisions about the future’.
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قديم 10-12-2014, 04:49 PM   #4
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scenario thinking and scenario planning:Scenario thinking and scenario planning
Re****** revealed a range of reasons why organisations embraced scenario planning, stretching from exploration to decision support.

At the exploration end, the key objective for organisations in engaging in a scenario process is the potential to learn.

When used for this purpose, the process itself becomes very important, at least as important as the scenario outcomes and the implications for future strategies.

Adding probabilities to support decision-making
The opposite view is that building scenarios is not the primary purpose, rather it is applying the outcomes to strategy making that is important.
When this is the purpose of engaging with a scenario exercise, it is common to find probabilities attached to the various scenario outcomes

Reasons to actively avoid adding probabilities
Purists from the ‘scenarios as learning’ school argue strongly against adding probabilities to scenarios. The underpinning philosophy they adhere to is to allow the mind to open and ‘think the unthinkable.

Proponents of this use of scenarios argue that strategies should be tested for their robustness in all the alternative futures that scenario thinking generates. It is not about choosing which one is more probable
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قديم 10-12-2014, 04:51 PM   #5
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you can find them in reading 6
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قديم 10-12-2014, 04:54 PM   #6
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b)level of analysis:Scenarios have been developed for countries, for regions, for issues (the future of crime, the future of women) and for institutions.

Among those examples developed for organisations, there can be many levels of analysis, from global, external, environmental to focused, internal issues.

The length of the time period considered tends to correlate with the scale and scope of the exercise.

Global, complex, long-term scenarios
The World Business Council’s scenarios have a fifty-year time horizon and were produced in order to: ‘explore sustainability at this juncture in human history and to raise fundamental questions of how humanity defines itself and how each one of us comes to terms with the challenges of the 21st century’.
Focused, narrow scenarios
Porter’s classic textbook Competitive Advantage (1985) provided a theoretical example of how to use scenario techniques to formulate a competitive strategy.

Whilst he advocated broad thinking about the external environment, he focused on his industry structure model as a framework within which to construct different competitive scenarios
Scenarios are adaptable and flexible in use
Scenarios at different levels of analysis are often complementary. A first exploratory, broad exercise which looks globally can be supplemented with decision support scenarios focused on investigating a specific issue, industry, business or topic.

Porter extols the virtues of this approach:
‘In some industries scenarios are best constructed by starting inside the industry and looking outward for additional sources of uncertainty.
In other industries, it is more appropriate to begin with macroscenarios and then narrow the focus to the industry
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قديم 11-12-2014, 04:57 PM   #7
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